{"id":13166,"date":"2023-03-14T14:23:16","date_gmt":"2023-03-14T15:23:16","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/daric-persian.com\/?p=13166"},"modified":"2023-03-14T14:23:19","modified_gmt":"2023-03-14T15:23:19","slug":"where-does-china-stand-on-the-ukraine-war","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/daric-persian.com\/?p=13166","title":{"rendered":"
Where does China stand on the Ukraine war"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"Chinese<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cBeijing will have to make its own decisions about… whether it provides military assistance, but if it goes down that road it will come at real costs,\u201d US national security adviser Jake Sullivan told CNN on Monday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

His comment is the latest in a string of warnings for China not to aid Russia\u2019s deadly assault on Ukraine.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But Beijing\u2019s stance on the Ukraine war is complicated, pushed and pulled in competing directions. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Nowhere more so than militarily.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

With Russian military stocks exhausted after a long year of grinding warfare, Dani Belo, Assistant Professor of International Relations at Webster University, says it is “possible” China could supply Moscow with lethal aid.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

, however he believes it will most likely confine itself to supplying \u201cammunition, uniforms and other basic provisions\u201d for fear of risking an escalation with the US and its allies<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2018China\u2019s got itself in a bit of a mess\u2019<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Another reason why Beijing may shy away from providing heavier weapons, such as missiles and tanks, is that this could jeopardise China\u2019s position as a conflict mediator.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cIt would be surprising if they went that far because it would take away any pretence of being an honest broker who could help bring about a solution to the conflict,\u201d Professor Shaun Breslin, a leading academic expert on Chinese politics at Warwick University, told Euronews.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On Friday, China called for a comprehensive ceasefire in Ukraine, touting its own peace plan that urged all parties to \u201cexercise restraint, avoid fanning the flames\u2026 and prevent the crisis from\u2026 spiralling out of control.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

What the Chinese are doing here, says Prof Breslin, is position themselves as a \u201cvery different type of great power from the West.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Unlike the US and its allies, which have emphatically supported Ukraine with oodles of military and financial support, Beijing has focused on finding solutions through dialogue and peace.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Anonymous\/Xinhua\"\/
China is building up a powerful army.<\/em>Anonymous\/Xinhua<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

But this stance is a \u201cdelicate balancing act\u201d, highlighting tensions within Chinese foreign policy, adds Prof Breslin. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cWhile they’re happy to blame the West for the conflict and support Russian claims they have genuine security concerns by the potential expansion of NATO\u2026 China has [also] pushed its credentials as a force of peace and stability in the world\u2026 adhering to non-interference in politics, sovereignty and boundaries,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThere’s an asymmetry to their neutrality.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

What\u2019s more, even if Beijing can get both Kyiv and Moscow around the negotiating table, there is no guarantee they will comply with a Chinese-led diplomatic settlement.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cChina\u2019s plan is aspirational. But what happens if they don\u2019t go along with what you say? It’s quite difficult to see how their plan can lead to anything,\u201d said Prof Beslin.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cLike quite a lot of countries, the Chinese would quite like all this to go away. They would much rather the war never happened,\u201d he added.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2018Beijing wants a solid footprint in Eastern Europe\u2019<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

A key driver of China\u2019s stance towards the Ukraine war is economics. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Before the 2022 invasion, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy welcomed Chinese investment in the country. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Beijing was the single largest investor in Ukraine\u2019s infrastructure before the conflict, and is a major consumer of Russian energy, which helps keep Putin\u2019s war machine afloat.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Despite analysts predicting the contrary, China has not imported significantly more energy from Russia since the conflict began, amid European bans on Russian oil and gas.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

These economic motivations give Beijing \u201csignificant leverage\u201d as a mediator, says Prof Belo.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

He told Euronews Beijing will likely try to secure a prominent role in post-conflict reconstruction \u2013 not out of the goodness of its heart, but because it is lucrative and could increase its \u201cstrategic footprint\u201d in Eastern Europe.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Alexei
A building damaged during fighting is seen in Mariupol, Ukraine, on April 13, 2022.<\/em>Alexei Alexandrov\/Copyright 2022 The AP. All rights reserved.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

\u201cChina is going to want to be integrated into Ukraine\u2019s economy in a much more substantial way after the war,\u201d Prof Belo continued.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

An ongoing study from the Kyiv School of Economics calculated that every week, Ukraine suffers about $4.5 billion worth of damage to its civilian infrastructure. It forecast the country’s total economic losses could rise to around $600 billion.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Whatever happens, one first vital step will be a bilateral meeting between China and Ukraine \u2013 as Zelenskyy recently requested.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cChina is really the player to watch [when it comes to Ukraine],\u201d said Prof Belo. \u201cDiplomatically, militarily and globally it’s the player that often tilts the scales.\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\u201cBeijing will have to make its own decisions about… whether it provides military assistance, but if it goes down that<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":13167,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-13166","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-1"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/daric-persian.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13166","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/daric-persian.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/daric-persian.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/daric-persian.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/5"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/daric-persian.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=13166"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/daric-persian.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13166\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":13168,"href":"https:\/\/daric-persian.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13166\/revisions\/13168"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/daric-persian.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/13167"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/daric-persian.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=13166"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/daric-persian.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=13166"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/daric-persian.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=13166"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}